Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 38, 2022

Posted Mon, 26 Sep 2022, from Monero Observer

Price Analysis

Source Article Link:


XMR opened at 140.63 (Kraken XMR-USD) and bottomed at 134.35 on Thursday before closing the week’s action at 141.32 (+0.59%~).

The action

During Week 38 the bulls managed to confine the action to a tight ~4% range between 140 and 145 and deny bear access below the key 135 support.

The reds took advantage of the reinforced resistance zone above 140 to launch several assaults targeting 135 on Monday, Wednesday and Thursday.

All attempts were blocked and the period’s low point was registered at 134.35.

On Friday, a green counterattack set the week’s top at 146.20 after pinging the 4H 50 exponential in the .382 fib area.

The action closed at 141.32, with a tiny, but not insignificant +0.59% bull win.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are trying to reverse the hourly deathcross.

  • Bullish scenario

The bulls have less than 4 days to win the battle for the monthly 50 EMA.

As previously reported:

If the bulls could deny bear access below 130 and flip 145 very soon, they should be able to target the monthly 50 EMA resistance line around 150 next.

Failed/in progress. The bulls have defended well, but they were unable to retake 145 and 150 was inaccessible all week.

The bull campaign should focus on clearing the daily 50 EMA (~150) and weekly 200/monthly 50 EMAs (~155) resistance cluster next.

Victory would put the bulls in a solid position to target the 170 resistance and that event could lead to a daily golden cross and expose the 200 critical bear resistance to future attacks.

  • Bearish scenario

The bears are wasting chances, but they are still in control of almost every timeframe.

As previously reported:

If the bears can stay in control of 140, they should be able to target critical infrastructure around 135.

Check/in progress. Although 140 was disputed territory throughout the period, the bears did manage to create opportunities and 135 was under heavy siege during the first half.

If the reds could trap their opponents on eventual low timeframe RSI divergences, they might be able to initiate a strong countermove soon.

Stopping the bulls from doing damage above 150 could put 135 back on the table and enable skirmishes inside the 115-135 support perimeter.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Kraken XMR-BTC) the bulls temporarily secured the daily 50 exponential support line after deflecting yet another bear strike, the fourth in two weeks, that was targeting .00715.

The week started at .007237 with a weak bull attack that failed to pierce the 4H 50 EMA around .0074.

A quick bearish reaction forced the bulls to switch gears in order to defend the daily 50 EMA. However, the red move wasn’t strong enough to break the support and the week’s low point was registered at .00716 on Tuesday.

The very next day, a furious bull counterattack caught the bears by surprise and pinged .00755. .007569 was going to be the top.

A 2H goldencross on Sunday fueled a follow-up strike. The resistance level was barely defended by an exhausted bear force.

The action closed at .007517, marking a decent +3.98% bull victory.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are looking for a break above .0076.

  • Bullish scenario

The bull morale is increasing and .008 is now on the table.

As previously reported:

Provided the bulls can stay above the daily 50 exponential, they should be able to strike at the resistance again in the near future.

Check/in progress. Bullish reinforcements defended the daily 50 EMA and .0076 is disputed territory at the moment.

A confident close above .0076 should expose the .008 top.

Print a higher high to potentially enable previously reported macro objectives:

[..] the weekly 200 EMA below .009 and the monthly 50 EMA around .0093.

  • Bearish scenario

The bears are in desperate need of a shooting star formation on the monthly in order to prevent a full scale bull invasion.

As previously reported:

The bears need to cascade death crosses to the 3/4H charts and strike at the 50 EMA support until it breaks.

Failed. The continued bearish effort, while laudable, doesn’t really change the reality on the ground. The greens are still in control of all hourly charts, including the daily.

If the bears could force the action back below .0074 until the monthly closes in ~4 days, they might get another shot at flipping .00715.

Break the moving average line to expose the .0066 support just above the daily 200 EMA.

Note: Kraken is used for the high amount of historical data points.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.


License: CC BY 4.0, no changes were made to the article.